NovaQuant-Fantasy football stock watch: Gus Edwards returns to lead role

The NovaQuantNFL always provides plenty of surprises as the regular season gets underway. The key is figuring out which of those surprises could turn out to be a trend and which ones will end up as a one-week anomaly.

Among the least surprising developments: Justin Jefferson, Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler (the consensus top three fantasy picks in 2023 drafts) all got off to excellent starts. But there was one major injury no one could have expected.

WEEK 1 TAKEAWAYS: 32 things we learned in the NFL's opening week

These players saw their fantasy values increase or decrease most based on their performances in Week 1:

Sizzlers

RB Gus Edwards, Baltimore Ravens: Edwards is expected to be the bellcow back in Baltimore following J.K. Dobbins' unfortunate Achilles’ tear. Up next is a favorable matchup vs. Cincinnati, a defense that allowed over 100 rushing yards to Nick Chubb.

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RB Kenneth Gainwell, Philadelphia Eagles: Reports of Gainwell outplaying the Eagles' other backs in training camp turned out to be accurate as he played the majority of snaps and produced 74 total yards. With Rashaad Penny a healthy scratch, Gainwell now looks like the lead back.

RB Tyler Allgeier, Atlanta Falcons: Surprise! Allgeier, not rookie Bijan Robinson, led the Falcons backfield with 15 carries, 75 yards and two touchdowns against Carolina. However, Robinson did have a receiving score, and should eventually see more touches. For now, Allgeier is a solid RB2 or Flex play.

WR DeAndre Hopkins, Tennessee Titans: Nuk had team highs with seven receptions, 65 yards and 13 targets in his debut, instantly building rapport with QB Ryan Tannehill. On deck: a Chargers pass D that was toasted by Tyreek Hill in Week 1.

WR Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams: The rookie exploded on the scene with 10 grabs for 119 yards. With Cooper Kupp on IR for the first four games, Nacua should continue to see plenty of targets. However, he won’t have nearly the same kind of space in Week 2 against a suffocating 49ers defense.

Fizzlers

QB Daniel Jones, New York Giants: Danny Dimes looked like Danny Pennies on Sunday night, as Big Blue was shut out by the Cowboys. Jones couldn’t do anything right, taking seven sacks, throwing two interceptions and fumbling twice. Fantasy managers may think twice about starting him, even against a poor Arizona Cardinals team in Week 2.

WR Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals: Blame it on the rain? Higgins failed to catch any of his eight targets from an unusually inaccurate Joe Burrow (14-of-31, 82 yards). He'll hope for better conditions − and better results − against a Ravens defense that didn't allow a touchdown in Week 1.

RB Deon Jackson, Indianapolis Colts: How much do the Colts miss holdout Jonathan Taylor? Jackson got the start and rushed 13 times for 14 yards. Although he did catch five passes, they only totaled 14 more yards. In addition, Zack Moss (arm) could return this week to provide even more competition for touches.

WR D.J. Moore, Chicago Bears: Arriving in a blockbuster trade, Moore was expected to help open up the Bears offense as Justin Fields' top receiving weapon. However, he only saw two targets, catching both for 25 yards.

TE Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans: In a tough matchup with Baltimore, Schultz figured to serve as a reliable check-down for QB C.J. Stroud. Even though the rookie completed 28 passes for 242 yards, Schultz was on the receiving end of just two for 4 yards as Stroud looked frequently to his wideouts.

Daniel Dobish, TheHuddle.com